640,000 New Voters Face Knesset Race

Israelis will cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in an election where a cohort of 640,000 first-time voters holds the potential to decide up to 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that these young voters, aged 18 to 22, represent nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their participation could tip the balance in a closely contested race.

The demographic surge stems from Israel's high birth rate. Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, noted that this creates a large pool of new citizens. She stated that if turnout remains high, as their research suggests, this group will influence the final tally. The IDI co-sponsored a recent event in Tel Aviv with the Yigal Allon Center to address over 1,000 of these prospective voters.

Polling data indicates a high likelihood of participation. A May survey by the IDI found that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to vote. Another poll conducted for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, with 19% thinking they would.

Voters in this age group cite national security and the cost of living as their primary concerns. Hoffman explained that these individuals experienced key historical events during their formative years, including the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the events of October 7. She observed that these experiences leave them worried about their future. An N12 poll from September 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left.

Party preferences among this group vary by region and ideology. In the N12 poll, 16% of young respondents said they would vote for Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, and 14% for Likud, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Mock elections in high schools showed support for Yashar and Beyachad, the latter led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Some support exists for Likud, but less for the far-right party led by Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon in an army preparation program, said she is voting to change the future of the country. She plans to support the Democrats or Yashar, both part of the opposition change bloc. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem, plans to back the Religious Zionist party. He supports the West Bank policies of leaders Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. Tomer Shiloh, also 18 and from Herzeliyah, will vote for the change bloc to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs.

Other voters focus on specific economic and social issues. A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M, cited the cost of tuition, books, food, and housing as reasons to vote for the Democrats. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party that will address resource gaps and crime. He stated that he is urging his friends to vote because he considers the country his home.

The election follows a period of political instability. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been in office since 2009, with a brief break in 2021 and 2022. The opposition change bloc aims to remove him from power. The outcome of Tuesday's vote will determine the composition of the next Knesset and potentially the leadership of the government.