23 Percent: Yamal Tops AI Odds for Ballon d'Or
Avisia rates the Barcelona winger the favorite for the award, while bookmakers favor Harry Kane at 70 percent.
By Priyanka Shah ·
Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe, and Harry Kane are the primary contenders for the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The award will be presented at the London Palladium on Sunday. The ceremony marks the conclusion of the voting process for the 2025-26 season.
Avisia, a French data analysis firm, identifies Yamal as the statistical favorite. The company assigns the 19-year-old Spain forward a 23 percent probability of winning. Harry Kane follows with a 21 percent chance. Kylian Mbappe and Rodri are tied for third at 19 percent each. Lionel Messi rounds out the top five at 18 percent. Avisia notes that its model correctly predicted the top five recipients of the previous year's award, which went to Ousmane Dembele. Bookmakers present a different picture, listing Kane as the heavy favorite with roughly a 70 percent likelihood of victory.
Yamal won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona during the season. Although injury affected his personal output, his major trophies align with historical trends. Only four of the last 19 winners failed to capture the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship, or Copa America in their winning year. A victory would make Yamal the youngest recipient in the award's history. The current record is held by Brazil's Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.
Mbappe posted strong individual numbers. He finished as the top scorer in La Liga with 25 goals and led the Champions League with 15. He also won the World Cup Golden Boot and set a tournament record with 12 goals. However, he did not win a major trophy with his club or national team. Kane scored 73 goals last season, the highest total by a player since Lionel Messi recorded 82 in 2011-12. Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich but finished third at the World Cup with England.
Former and current players have expressed their preferences. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone supports Messi, citing his performance at age 38. "No doubt about it," Simeone said. Jude Bellingham backs Kane, calling him a hard-working person. Anthony Gordon supports Yamal, describing him as being on a whole other level. Aurelien Tchouameni supports Mbappe, citing an incredible season.
The announcement will take place in London. The event will determine which of the three players receives the gold ball.
Source: Al Jazeera
